Fitch Maintains Maldives ‘CC’ Rating, Flags High Default Risk and Refinancing Challenges

Fitch Ratings affirmed Maldives' long-term foreign currency issuer default rating at 'CC' with stable outlook, citing high default risk due to heavy refinancing needs, weak external liquidity, and limited fiscal buffers. Fitch warned that a default event remains probable within the rating horizon. Foreign reserves rose to $856 million in April, supported by a $400 million currency swap with the Reserve Bank of India, but gross reserves stood at $499 million at end-April, covering less than two months of imports. Government debt projected at 109% of GDP in 2025, rising to 125.1% by 2026. Economy expected to grow 4.8% in 2025. Maldives faces $688 million external debt repayments in H2 2025, including dues from the RBI swap, and a $500 million sukuk matures in April 2026. Fitch said credible fiscal consolidation is essential. Upgrade possible if reserves strengthen and fiscal reforms are undertaken; downgrade likely on missed payment or debt restructuring.

Fitch Ratings affirmed Maldives' long-term foreign currency issuer default rating at 'CC' with stable outlook, citing high default risk due to heavy refinancing needs, weak external liquidity, and limited fiscal buffers. Fitch warned that a default event remains probable within the rating horizon. Foreign reserves rose to $856 million in April, supported by a $400 million currency swap with the Reserve Bank of India, but gross reserves stood at $499 million at end-April, covering less than two months of imports. Government debt projected at 109% of GDP in 2025, rising to 125.1% by 2026. Economy expected to grow 4.8% in 2025. Maldives faces $688 million external debt repayments in H2 2025, including dues from the RBI swap, and a $500 million sukuk matures in April 2026. Fitch said credible fiscal consolidation is essential. Upgrade possible if reserves strengthen and fiscal reforms are undertaken; downgrade likely on missed payment or debt restructuring.

Fitch Ratings affirmed Maldives' long-term foreign currency issuer default rating at 'CC' with stable outlook, citing high default risk due to heavy refinancing needs, weak external liquidity, and limited fiscal buffers. Fitch warned that a default event remains probable within the rating horizon. Foreign reserves rose to $856 million in April, supported by a $400 million currency swap with the Reserve Bank of India, but gross reserves stood at $499 million at end-April, covering less than two months of imports. Government debt projected at 109% of GDP in 2025, rising to 125.1% by 2026. Economy expected to grow 4.8% in 2025. Maldives faces $688 million external debt repayments in H2 2025, including dues from the RBI swap, and a $500 million sukuk matures in April 2026. Fitch said credible fiscal consolidation is essential. Upgrade possible if reserves strengthen and fiscal reforms are undertaken; downgrade likely on missed payment or debt restructuring.

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