Saudi oil officials are modelling how high crude prices could rise if hostilities centred on Iran and related supply disruptions continue past April, with a baseline scenario above $180 a barrel. Benchmark Brent rose to $119 and Oman futures surged above $166, with prices up roughly 50% since the war began on February 28.
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The conflict has already removed millions of barrels from the global market, helping drive oil prices up by roughly 50 percent since the war began on February 28.
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The attacks pushed benchmark Brent crude futures up to $119 a barrel before prices pulled back on Thursday.
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Saudi Arabia generally does not like too-rapid increases in oil, because that then creates long-term market instability,
For Saudis, the ideal equation is a relatively modest increase in prices while their market share remains stable,
$200 a barrel is not outside the realms of possibility in 2026,
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their baseline scenario sees prices climbing above $180 a barrel if the disruption lasts through late April
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The attacks pushed benchmark Brent crude futures up to $119 a barrel before prices pulled back on Thursday.
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Brent’s record high remains $146.08 a barrel, reached in July 2008.
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"$200 a barrel is not outside the realms of possibility in 2026," an expert at energy consulting firm Wood Mackenzie said.
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Futures linked to Oman crude, a less liquid benchmark that tends to respond more quickly to regional supply shocks, surged above $166 a barrel.
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The conflict has already removed millions of barrels from the global market, helping drive oil prices up by roughly 50 percent since the war began on February 28.
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